ScaDaMaLe Course site and book

Detecting Events of Interest to OIL/GAS Price Trends

Johannes Graner (LinkedIn), Albert Nilsson (LinkedIn) and Raazesh Sainudiin (LinkedIn)

2020, Uppsala, Sweden

This project was supported by Combient Mix AB through summer internships at:

Combient Competence Centre for Data Engineering Sciences, Department of Mathematics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden


Here we will build a pipeline to investigate possible events related to oil and gas that are reported in mass media around the world and their possible co-occurrence with certain trends and trend-reversals in oil price.

Steps:

  • Step 0. Setting up and loading GDELT delta.io tables
  • Step 1. Extracting coverage around gas and oil from each country
  • Step 2. Extracting the news around dates with high coverage (big events)
  • Step 3. Enrich oil price with trend calculus and comparing it to the coverage

Resources:

This builds on the following libraries and its antecedents therein:

This work was inspired by:

import spark.implicits._
import io.delta.tables._
import com.aamend.spark.gdelt._
import org.apache.spark.sql.{Dataset,DataFrame,SaveMode}
import org.apache.spark.sql.functions._
import org.apache.spark.sql.expressions._
import org.lamastex.spark.trendcalculus._
import java.sql.{Date,Timestamp}
import java.text.SimpleDateFormat
import spark.implicits._
import io.delta.tables._
import com.aamend.spark.gdelt._
import org.apache.spark.sql.{Dataset, DataFrame, SaveMode}
import org.apache.spark.sql.functions._
import org.apache.spark.sql.expressions._
import org.lamastex.spark.trendcalculus._
import java.sql.{Date, Timestamp}
import java.text.SimpleDateFormat

Loading in the data from our live-updating delta.io tables

"./000a_finance_utils"
defined object TrendUtils
"./000b_gdelt_utils"
defined object GdeltUtils
val rootPath = GdeltUtils.getGdeltV1Path
val rootCheckpointPath = GdeltUtils.getEOICheckpointPath
val gkgPath = rootPath+"gkg"
val eventPath = rootPath+"events"
val gkg_v1 = spark.read.format("delta").load(gkgPath).as[GKGEventV1]
val eve_v1 = spark.read.format("delta").load(eventPath).as[EventV1]
  1. Extracting coverage around gas and oil from each country

Limits the data and extracts the events related to oil and gas theme

val gkg_v1_filt = gkg_v1.filter($"publishDate">"2013-04-01 00:00:00" && $"publishDate"<"2019-12-31 00:00:00")
val oil_gas_themeGKG = gkg_v1_filt.filter(c =>c.themes.contains("ENV_GAS") || c.themes.contains("ENV_OIL"))
                              .select(explode($"eventIds"))
                              .toDF("eventId")
                              .groupBy($"eventId")
                              .agg(count($"eventId"))
                              .toDF("eventId","count") 
val oil_gas_eventDF = eve_v1.toDF()
                            .join( oil_gas_themeGKG, "eventId")

Checkpoint

oil_gas_eventDF.write.parquet(rootCheckpointPath + "oil_gas_event_v1")
val  oil_gas_eventDF = spark.read.parquet(rootCheckpointPath + "oil_gas_event_v1")

Extracting coverage for each country

// Counting number of articles for each country, each day and applying a moving average on each country's coverage
def movingAverage(df:DataFrame,size:Int,avgOn:String):DataFrame = {
  val windowSpec = Window.partitionBy($"country").orderBy($"date").rowsBetween(-size/2, size/2)
  return df.withColumn("coverage",avg(avgOn).over(windowSpec))
}
val (mean_articles, std_articles) = oilEventTemp.select(mean("articles"), stddev("articles"))
  .as[(Double, Double)]
  .first() 
val oilEventTemp = oil_gas_eventDF
  .filter(length(col("eventGeo.countryCode")) > 0)
  .groupBy(
    col("eventGeo.countryCode").as("country"),
    col("eventDay").as("date")
  )
  .agg(
    sum(col("numArticles")).as("articles"),
  )
                                        
//Applying moving averge over weeks and of normalized number of articles.
val oilEventWeeklyCoverage = movingAverage(oilEventTemp.withColumn("normArticles",
                                                                   ($"articles"-mean_articles) / std_articles),
                                                                    7,
                                                                    "normArticles")
  .drop("normArticles")      
movingAverage: (df: org.apache.spark.sql.DataFrame, size: Int, avgOn: String)org.apache.spark.sql.DataFrame
oilEventTemp: org.apache.spark.sql.DataFrame = [country: string, date: date ... 1 more field]
mean_articles: Double = 1593.3213115310818
std_articles: Double = 10276.10388376719
oilEventWeeklyCoverage: org.apache.spark.sql.DataFrame = [country: string, date: date ... 2 more fields]

Checkpoint

oilEventWeeklyCoverage.write.parquet(rootCheckpointPath +"oil_gas_cov_norm")
val oil_gas_cov_norm = spark.read.parquet(rootCheckpointPath +"oil_gas_cov_norm")

Enrich the event data with the extracted coverage

val oilEventWeeklyCoverageC = oil_gas_cov_norm.drop($"articles").toDF("country","tempDate","coverage")
val oilEventCoverageDF = oilEventWeeklyCoverageC.join(oil_gas_eventDF,oil_gas_eventDF("eventDay") === oilEventWeeklyCoverageC("tempDate") && oil_gas_eventDF("eventGeo.countryCode")
                       === oilEventWeeklyCoverageC("country"))

Checkpoint

oilEventCoverageDF.write.parquet(rootCheckpointPath+"oil_gas_eve_cov")
val oilEventCoverageDF = spark.read.parquet(rootCheckpointPath+"oil_gas_eve_cov")

Let us look at 2018

val tot_cov_2018 = oil_gas_cov_norm.filter($"date" >"2018-01-01" && $"date"<"2018-12-31").groupBy($"date").agg(sum($"coverage").as("coverage")).orderBy(desc("coverage"))

Total Coverage

display(tot_cov_2018)
date coverage
2018-05-11 27.486972103755587
2018-05-12 23.96793050873498
2018-05-10 22.996724752589337
2018-05-09 22.386286223280464
2018-05-08 20.1775002337218
2018-05-13 18.849262389568942
2018-05-07 18.356561615113378
2018-10-20 15.61132729731101
2018-04-16 15.462361791574757
2018-12-02 15.35916815092816
2018-04-15 15.283319413257985
2018-05-06 15.074567688377858
2018-10-14 14.456182009909384
2018-12-03 14.029036688423556
2018-04-21 13.984623515510002
2018-10-15 13.913223469927237
2018-10-17 13.899999502069956
2018-03-10 13.596583766909582
2018-03-11 13.328385180680641
2018-04-22 13.313579680574394
2018-04-17 13.06945600192825
2018-10-21 13.05918925998796
2018-10-19 13.042145921984297
2018-12-01 12.686288838799623
2018-10-18 12.395778148350379
2018-12-04 12.259894218727634
2018-04-18 12.19829841568054
2018-10-16 11.886229012014399
2018-04-20 11.528415547014669
2018-03-08 11.404094561394555
2018-04-14 11.330716620584942
2018-03-09 11.287064996907633
2018-04-19 11.254357433090025
2018-04-28 10.78023000863521
2018-04-29 10.393243293127174
2018-10-13 10.336221435744559
2018-09-22 10.000035737769323
2018-06-17 9.89640767482373
2018-09-23 9.743320330587773
2018-08-05 9.629453375016213
2018-12-05 9.51893722763343
2018-10-27 9.478760481207281
2018-03-04 9.062493219829184
2018-08-19 8.696936272089726
2018-06-23 8.508148813945867
2018-05-14 8.433635112149537
2018-10-23 8.378055403769487
2018-11-04 8.361164257492085
2018-03-12 8.332151356942868
2018-06-20 8.288965286725801
2018-05-27 8.195992626048099
2018-10-28 8.172456609861717
2018-11-30 8.076037057921956
2018-04-27 7.992062718099141
2018-06-19 7.982720769955921
2018-09-24 7.928409505440399
2018-10-22 7.7411860313545
2018-04-23 7.671714791621996
2018-12-08 7.477213251581839
2018-04-24 7.470870941142693
2018-11-10 7.411391505403686
2018-03-03 7.325979536642015
2018-04-08 7.268136025226444
2018-09-25 7.248527813504637
2018-10-25 7.192913236533858
2018-05-15 7.168859614571561
2018-01-13 7.126823571685313
2018-05-05 6.906878404112484
2018-08-21 6.841289525780963
2018-11-18 6.796834601675052
2018-06-21 6.764683340770092
2018-06-24 6.596574538956665
2018-11-03 6.522762585872373
2018-05-16 6.48615923713745
2018-01-07 6.420844453924965
2018-11-05 6.417688909844269
2018-03-06 6.349945149300961
2018-08-18 6.187501294449016
2018-03-07 6.172352349287472
2018-08-20 6.13211999534919
2018-06-16 6.118537632718658
2018-11-29 6.065241569765681
2018-03-17 6.006603083752083
2018-12-06 5.996538534079764
2018-03-18 5.910026828166202
2018-11-17 5.808400635657502
2018-09-26 5.801206664345313
2018-10-26 5.779325153878007
2018-06-18 5.734887914637875
2018-05-26 5.602190842490095
2018-04-13 5.596783148609628
2018-11-06 5.576395930577082
2018-01-08 5.517962782003598
2018-06-22 5.497506327930426
2018-05-19 5.490496043971789
2018-04-25 5.466491283594766
2018-08-06 5.445391605702541
2018-09-08 5.4006446510414
2018-04-07 5.382023244868721
2018-06-09 5.3258559201817555
2018-08-04 5.245437247626126
2018-11-11 5.241172880707882
2018-08-26 5.204499498662823
2018-03-13 5.185461263940412
2018-08-07 5.135946238463144
2018-10-24 5.134761205866823
2018-01-06 5.128352030068818
2018-04-12 5.125693671750433
2018-11-09 5.1252556486967205
2018-10-06 5.09820222957644
2018-05-20 5.095244730309911
2018-07-14 5.0886378741637985
2018-01-09 5.049410466223003
2018-08-25 4.980661941915239
2018-04-05 4.9786741555894025
2018-04-30 4.819035426044705
2018-01-10 4.76593736234763
2018-05-28 4.68026580074614
2018-12-09 4.625354233483328
2018-11-08 4.6069033872765415
2018-09-02 4.595944833281466
2018-07-22 4.593393861441349
2018-10-12 4.524520721372113
2018-02-18 4.255421749359614
2018-04-11 4.15326769550994
2018-05-01 4.148203765592582
2018-09-06 4.074638491116442
2018-01-21 4.040933228369039
2018-03-05 4.028081329371769
2018-01-20 3.983184963690456
2018-02-17 3.9592179437267587
2018-12-07 3.928415210549354
2018-05-17 3.900997379661076
2018-11-07 3.781090171979379
2018-08-22 3.7540960066842066
2018-07-08 3.691214257139836
2018-11-19 3.6381439060823175
2018-07-09 3.587919930383572
2018-08-08 3.582098553125515
2018-09-09 3.5759640874830154
2018-09-27 3.569020349975437
2018-01-14 3.4918510250085406
2018-04-26 3.4455823158435064
2018-01-12 3.4339601863531612
2018-04-10 3.4318089048960854
2018-01-11 3.4028826063454725
2018-06-30 3.355114219075089
2018-10-31 3.3540417080572116
2018-03-25 3.3523733004600995
2018-05-22 3.3116791760493247
2018-04-09 3.284132718620538
2018-11-28 3.2337105614328596
2018-02-11 3.1992058723611114
2018-06-14 3.1851964256157874
2018-06-10 3.161260627929845
2018-04-06 3.110227198132983
2018-08-09 3.0843001500412646
2018-05-25 3.0016326095327823
2018-09-01 2.9837093513174255
2018-09-15 2.9179880634576563
2018-07-21 2.8933506992926987
2018-07-15 2.8759383920429187
2018-05-18 2.8735511886835856
2018-04-01 2.8681500129386905
2018-03-21 2.859885597017876
2018-08-24 2.8589575441530255
2018-05-24 2.83382654942222
2018-07-13 2.787470623222106
2018-11-16 2.7626001178609734
2018-06-03 2.75461670243995
2018-11-02 2.74905636125065
2018-11-01 2.712890648324257
2018-03-24 2.705494621418867
2018-01-19 2.6930317927735197
2018-06-15 2.6915907378300803
2018-10-29 2.686991403988603
2018-11-20 2.668421959015086
2018-03-14 2.6656798705206937
2018-07-01 2.639377107255994
2018-03-16 2.567052974029147
2018-03-31 2.4768260481588094
2018-07-12 2.4322463716166536
2018-10-30 2.4248784673751347
2018-11-23 2.4229459696536297
2018-08-23 2.40527330970895
2018-02-13 2.3758812754650664
2018-05-29 2.316169222449841
2018-10-07 2.3156859613446947
2018-08-29 2.1799793376147036
2018-11-12 2.1693098056774884
2018-09-07 2.1595089361052366
2018-04-02 2.1315521682622944
2018-11-14 2.1134659160565357
2018-11-13 2.0047810335864957
2018-03-19 1.9628808187501918
2018-02-14 1.9227148290299392
2018-11-24 1.906880362157891
2018-06-02 1.8526803126666398
2018-02-10 1.8259332815621994
2018-03-22 1.8111175258908978
2018-09-20 1.8086046133719123
2018-01-18 1.7316578551283315
2018-02-24 1.679820897111581
2018-05-21 1.666972371077739
2018-06-25 1.648684473303101
2018-11-21 1.6143364878774755
2018-08-11 1.6057134493921184
2018-09-05 1.6002086245984404
2018-01-15 1.5938763419330733
2018-03-15 1.5571475346089114
2018-02-12 1.5543185252081144
2018-02-15 1.4696386764646396
2018-01-05 1.456344971425907
2018-06-08 1.4293196749694965
2018-09-21 1.382626912966169
2018-07-10 1.3382347067653138
2018-05-23 1.306861677680712
2018-08-03 1.2780186081652762
2018-07-11 1.2738690114677595
2018-10-11 1.2464405605483622
2018-11-25 1.2250799832621464
2018-11-22 1.214306483368349
2018-08-31 1.0760382222088678
2018-05-03 1.0552549601062509
2018-03-20 1.0422082525834733
2018-01-17 1.0252444061854975
2018-07-24 1.0143208574559224
2018-10-09 1.0071266127941847
2018-09-04 1.0005788282401595
2018-11-15 0.9223148101050318
2018-02-16 0.9074606306465425
2018-08-10 0.9036341501072411
2018-02-25 0.8639406420071154
2018-01-16 0.826683836667204
2018-08-12 0.7744852475885409
2018-05-30 0.7712897297484758
2018-07-20 0.7028110841076054
2018-05-02 0.6991097660288634
2018-09-03 0.683775948999076
2018-07-29 0.6335306876798337
2018-07-23 0.6152813959254133
2018-09-16 0.6123061206765863
2018-09-28 0.4523549405630516
2018-09-30 0.4515656786872553
2018-02-27 0.41566505849738844
2018-06-29 0.3820426144303619
2018-04-03 0.370570192088862
2018-07-25 0.3567793924043352
2018-01-02 0.3212670677455316
2018-03-02 0.25908410397409654
2018-03-30 0.17316334177262105
2018-02-04 0.16616025932341172
2018-08-17 0.1629558992156963
2018-03-26 6.727633754213702e-2
2018-04-04 6.601144887406996e-2
2018-03-23 3.179181663940911e-2
2018-05-31 3.136427694204036e-2
2018-06-01 -4.39999461099605e-2
2018-03-27 -4.958289477016642e-2
2018-09-19 -5.8010942496990126e-2
2018-07-28 -0.11868598530518337
2018-02-28 -0.1254175938875366
2018-08-30 -0.13668850733493443
2018-06-12 -0.2045192799011617
2018-08-27 -0.23392175194313714
2018-10-08 -0.2850772445866747
2018-08-28 -0.47637045929834043
2018-10-05 -0.4849237606022401
2018-10-10 -0.4941231461582305
2018-02-26 -0.5065333868479032
2018-07-07 -0.5303029545852589
2018-07-03 -0.6413684311625434
2018-02-09 -0.6442009502015447
2018-01-04 -0.7244459631773861
2018-01-23 -0.8192604176824385
2018-01-03 -0.8225724376179675
2018-07-26 -0.9098762772299227
2018-12-15 -0.9122642095213793
2018-09-14 -0.9531946203004753
2018-09-10 -0.9810538927641539
2018-03-01 -1.0602110951733992
2018-01-28 -1.0608057763149794
2018-09-11 -1.0616430797274217
2018-02-03 -1.0717219413020924
2018-01-22 -1.0789334608052936
2018-06-27 -1.0891339752023268
2018-06-28 -1.130141051322766
2018-06-26 -1.137654948062775
2018-11-27 -1.1812408908959169
2018-07-02 -1.3086446749179
2018-12-16 -1.309809287500618
2018-09-29 -1.3248856236581052
2018-03-28 -1.3552367963698195
2018-10-01 -1.3870131165921822
2018-02-02 -1.3895744806721257
2018-02-08 -1.4776949758916373
2018-02-22 -1.5599837016132585
2018-12-10 -1.6813019271362846
2018-07-17 -1.74591448327502
2018-07-19 -1.7573347621843314
2018-10-02 -1.8101306308776306
2018-02-23 -1.8113157090322092
2018-02-05 -1.8461329397893045
2018-07-06 -1.8676357265862635
2018-07-04 -1.9752014850954325
2018-12-14 -1.9804298977904016
2018-07-18 -2.090632333608432
2018-06-07 -2.142892866101778
2018-06-04 -2.1431848510987486
2018-06-13 -2.1665641636390136
2018-12-19 -2.1964153243240783
2018-10-03 -2.200248596348493
2018-08-16 -2.2183974753427886
2018-05-04 -2.2567422734823293
2018-02-19 -2.260530603583992
2018-08-15 -2.504414714014903
2018-02-20 -2.5476634565787677
2018-08-14 -2.582734658569964
2018-07-27 -2.748020923559909
2018-12-18 -2.8451915413795694
2018-12-11 -2.8570741374604642
2018-07-16 -2.930993932605596
2018-12-12 -2.9849609775754398
2018-02-07 -2.9921828893184763
2018-12-13 -3.035720198357624
2018-01-31 -3.0422540354753624
2018-06-11 -3.0482803401492116
2018-06-06 -3.1153431364601376
2018-12-22 -3.128129764637562
2018-09-13 -3.14691361777108
2018-09-18 -3.1473488148909317
2018-10-04 -3.1826525202627054
2018-11-26 -3.206987780540401
2018-03-29 -3.2177095470263226
2018-09-12 -3.3188840423945587
2018-02-21 -3.3415718617878376
2018-08-01 -3.374807833645513
2018-07-05 -3.401297748343711
2018-02-06 -3.41801131537882
2018-09-17 -3.5595776490375344
2018-01-29 -3.75670988031478
2018-08-02 -3.766465397939953
2018-02-01 -3.8767280752294666
2018-01-24 -4.0353868362684135
2018-01-25 -4.099231233918816
2018-01-30 -4.132258540931211
2018-06-05 -4.204603868662037
2018-01-27 -4.225338770320211
2018-07-30 -4.340032591506121
2018-12-23 -4.496748804270663
2018-12-20 -4.530356321068381
2018-12-17 -4.685629860910394
2018-08-13 -5.158738574164472
2018-01-26 -5.786964396963983
2018-12-21 -5.938428867782927
2018-07-31 -6.001366042606405
2018-12-30 -6.048890091027438
2018-12-24 -6.303273492337473
2018-12-29 -7.5290821169025826
2018-12-25 -7.942541335592582
2018-12-26 -8.732956905335165
2018-12-28 -10.492764195593848
2018-12-27 -11.056655636490078

trendcalculusmcmodelperformance

Coverage Grouped by Country

display(oil_gas_cov_norm.filter($"date" >"2018-01-01" && $"date"<"2018-12-31").orderBy(desc("coverage")).limit(1000))
country date articles coverage
US 2018-04-19 293978.0 17.06571958044547
US 2018-03-10 121473.0 16.997419653664288
US 2018-04-20 128613.0 16.8411625445618
US 2018-04-16 121972.0 16.804795231624784
US 2018-04-18 325093.0 16.69630497544722
US 2018-04-21 94415.0 16.66300997755572
US 2018-03-11 192305.0 16.321746675576378
US 2018-04-17 198695.0 16.118084162377855
US 2018-03-12 121061.0 16.02109075933443
US 2018-03-08 167306.0 16.003087827280364
US 2018-05-10 239649.0 15.9504831207996
US 2018-03-09 172436.0 15.937985332447004
US 2018-05-11 156365.0 15.620396928759616
US 2018-01-08 125330.0 15.618951133444076
US 2018-05-09 250456.0 15.48443656158681
US 2018-01-07 75339.0 15.46596096567959
US 2018-04-15 49398.0 15.288016926844017
US 2018-01-09 135528.0 15.24454575423161
US 2018-04-22 75971.0 15.150165904258586
US 2018-03-13 254054.0 15.04659691290507
US 2018-05-08 249174.0 15.008311140799353
US 2018-01-10 269866.0 14.808527251572325
US 2018-03-14 156586.0 14.661737321411012
US 2018-12-04 143569.0 14.583942411932586
US 2018-08-19 39816.0 14.553163653965246
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IR 2018-01-06 6834.0 1.3340485558215438
CA 2018-06-17 10593.0 1.3338400276510332
IR 2018-06-08 6583.0 1.3332144431395019
IR 2018-07-03 21279.0 1.33217180228695
UK 2018-05-07 5301.0 1.330003109313641
VE 2018-05-25 1774.0 1.3277788088281965
FR 2018-05-11 12034.0 1.326569345439236
SN 2018-06-12 31123.0 1.3251374520017312
FR 2018-11-08 2248.0 1.3230799740526948
CH 2018-05-21 22177.0 1.32178709939553
CA 2018-04-20 19129.0 1.3207583604210118
TU 2018-10-27 4528.0 1.3195349951540176
IR 2018-07-06 15913.0 1.3192152519592348
IR 2018-08-11 5996.0 1.3185618636916352
UK 2018-04-09 18497.0 1.3161985444258504
IZ 2018-09-09 15579.0 1.3148361603785157
CH 2018-05-16 8081.0 1.3134876782092146
RS 2018-12-07 14087.0 1.312625761771105
IR 2018-01-12 19851.0 1.311833354723165
CA 2018-01-19 18253.0 1.3110548495532597
IR 2018-06-05 31939.0 1.3101234237249797
IS 2018-05-07 2329.0 1.3096090542377208
UK 2018-04-11 18242.0 1.3050214344864912
CH 2018-12-05 14743.0 1.3037146579512924
RS 2018-12-08 19621.0 1.302046432587209
VE 2018-05-26 14188.0 1.3010315954907252
IZ 2018-09-05 18357.0 1.301017693612691
RS 2018-02-28 7664.0 1.3009898898566228
UK 2018-05-21 11404.0 1.2999750527601388
SN 2018-06-09 2957.0 1.2989602156636546
CA 2018-08-04 3257.0 1.2985570612006678
RS 2018-12-04 14318.0 1.2980843973475107
CH 2018-07-09 6810.0 1.2980009860793065
SY 2018-12-20 30894.0 1.2926487630362058
RS 2018-07-26 13216.0 1.2913975940131428
SN 2018-06-13 7445.0 1.2907442057455434
CH 2018-05-10 19231.0 1.2891732935276983
ID 2018-10-27 53.0 1.2841130099233116
IR 2018-06-06 42002.0 1.2839878930210051
CH 2018-05-15 8474.0 1.2837932667285288
UK 2018-04-27 13479.0 1.2823474714129899
CA 2018-04-19 16931.0 1.281388241828642
SA 2018-12-01 18669.0 1.277050855882025
UK 2018-04-08 8124.0 1.2756606680786218
UK 2018-06-13 13348.0 1.2738534239341983
RS 2018-02-11 30582.0 1.273797816422062
RS 2018-12-06 13831.0 1.2664576248200947
RS 2018-12-05 27060.0 1.2662769004056522
IR 2018-06-04 8450.0 1.266054470357108
VE 2018-05-24 2234.0 1.265595708381985
IR 2018-01-13 31617.0 1.2649284182363516
CA 2018-01-17 22089.0 1.2645113618953305
UK 2018-07-08 3193.0 1.2640525999202077
CA 2018-04-18 18547.0 1.258450143072494
CA 2018-05-31 17206.0 1.257351894707806
UK 2018-03-19 10345.0 1.2568931327326829
CA 2018-05-30 16372.0 1.2558504918801305
CH 2018-06-18 11364.0 1.2555446505633818
CA 2018-06-18 8726.0 1.2549190660518508
SY 2018-12-19 7622.0 1.2543768928085235
SA 2018-08-15 3313.0 1.2514714002994116
UK 2018-04-28 27937.0 1.2506233857393358
CA 2018-10-18 13234.0 1.2487744359608102
CA 2018-04-17 17350.0 1.245396279598541
RS 2018-05-06 6387.0 1.2431580772350623
CA 2018-06-01 18011.0 1.2414203424808083
CH 2018-05-22 12108.0 1.2403498978721885
UK 2018-04-29 3125.0 1.2380421861185393
CA 2018-07-25 18416.0 1.237277582826668
UK 2018-03-04 5144.0 1.236777115217443
CA 2018-07-24 18424.0 1.2365407832908646
CH 2018-08-05 3110.0 1.235915198779333
FR 2018-05-10 3506.0 1.2357205724868567
IR 2018-11-09 8241.0 1.2352062029995976
KN 2018-06-08 3686.0 1.2351227917313936
CA 2018-04-28 4775.0 1.2350810860972914
KN 2018-05-27 4184.0 1.2345806184880666
CH 2018-05-08 34641.0 1.2341496602690116
CA 2018-06-15 10975.0 1.2340384452447393
UK 2018-04-30 11743.0 1.2263090010578193
CA 2018-01-16 25882.0 1.226281197301751
CA 2018-05-29 33358.0 1.225669514668254
UK 2018-02-07 18936.0 1.2238205648897278
CH 2018-05-09 23575.0 1.2215406568921474
UK 2018-05-01 16301.0 1.2203868010153227
IR 2018-07-02 16038.0 1.219052220724056
CA 2018-07-26 6261.0 1.2161050225808423
CH 2018-05-23 11235.0 1.2149650685820517
UK 2018-11-22 11056.0 1.2136721939248871
UK 2018-03-18 11517.0 1.212365417389688
UK 2018-04-07 6920.0 1.2121290854631095
UK 2018-03-09 14277.0 1.211920557292599
IR 2018-06-03 2185.0 1.2110586408544894
CA 2018-06-06 12598.0 1.2098352755874946
IR 2018-08-24 4128.0 1.2078751107846968
VE 2018-05-27 59244.0 1.2072078206390633
UK 2018-06-23 12900.0 1.2061234741524092
IR 2018-07-07 14391.0 1.2040520943253388
UK 2018-03-08 16241.0 1.201480246889043
SA 2018-10-07 7012.0 1.2006461342070016
UK 2018-02-04 14635.0 1.1999510403053004
CH 2018-03-24 4221.0 1.199408867061973
UK 2018-02-06 15372.0 1.1989362032088162
VE 2018-05-28 9163.0 1.1985608525018974
IR 2018-10-03 30232.0 1.1971845665765284
UK 2018-03-21 22001.0 1.193597882043749
KN 2018-05-28 18718.0 1.1935005688975107
KN 2018-07-05 10469.0 1.1933198444830684
UK 2018-03-20 23703.0 1.1931947275807622
CH 2018-06-17 3934.0 1.192054773581972
SA 2018-11-30 14191.0 1.1918045397773593
CA 2018-06-19 13254.0 1.1911650533877938
RS 2018-07-29 2042.0 1.191095543997624
CA 2018-07-22 2925.0 1.190692389534637
KN 2018-04-21 24575.0 1.1871057050018574
CA 2018-10-19 8756.0 1.1822539495679811
CH 2018-03-08 8583.0 1.180655233594068
VE 2018-05-29 9601.0 1.1801547659848433
RS 2018-03-07 15959.0 1.1797377096438222
SA 2018-11-29 16006.0 1.1773743903780372
CA 2018-07-23 41474.0 1.172925789407148
RS 2018-03-04 1629.0 1.1712714659210985
UK 2018-02-05 19498.0 1.170048100654104
UK 2018-03-05 10324.0 1.1689359504113814
UK 2018-03-10 6580.0 1.167740388900455
SY 2018-12-24 13111.0 1.1651546395861259
CA 2018-08-03 6032.0 1.1647653870011732
SA 2018-12-05 16995.0 1.1642510175139138
UK 2018-07-16 10575.0 1.1642232137578457
IR 2018-12-04 11543.0 1.1634725123440082
IR 2018-10-30 4973.0 1.1627079090521366
CH 2018-03-09 22473.0 1.1626383996619665
SA 2018-08-07 12130.0 1.1618459926140268
CA 2018-06-16 23349.0 1.1597051033967862
RS 2018-07-30 3423.0 1.1596633977626845
UK 2018-06-12 15900.0 1.157522508545444
UK 2018-11-21 20627.0 1.1571749615945932
RS 2018-07-08 1798.0 1.1559376944495647
CA 2018-04-15 6133.0 1.1524483230630231
CA 2018-04-16 12435.0 1.152378813672853
CA 2018-05-27 3159.0 1.150891312723212
SY 2018-04-07 1105.0 1.150488158260225
IR 2018-10-04 13580.0 1.1499459850168983
SA 2018-11-15 14772.0 1.1488199328961417
SA 2018-11-26 7666.0 1.1483889746770866
FR 2018-11-21 6124.0 1.146998786873684
UK 2018-03-07 20636.0 1.1469431793615477
RS 2018-03-24 2852.0 1.1455112859240426
IR 2018-07-08 5070.0 1.1437040417796192
IR 2018-04-30 31598.0 1.142703106561169
UK 2018-05-22 11329.0 1.1408958624167451
UK 2018-03-23 8327.0 1.138935697613947
UK 2018-11-24 9398.0 1.1382684074683136
UK 2018-01-12 31543.0 1.1382684074683136
IR 2018-07-01 8826.0 1.137517706054476
FR 2018-12-09 16079.0 1.1353768168372356
SA 2018-11-16 9813.0 1.1333888482783696
SA 2018-08-09 11301.0 1.133124712595723
UK 2018-03-06 20454.0 1.132165483011375
UK 2018-02-03 4853.0 1.1320542679871026
CA 2018-12-02 5790.0 1.1320125623530006
IZ 2018-09-10 8923.0 1.131748426670354
RS 2018-04-20 18588.0 1.1270217881387843
SA 2018-12-06 20131.0 1.1267020449440017
RS 2018-03-06 40865.0 1.125436974042905
SY 2018-12-18 394.0 1.1228234209725076
RS 2018-05-23 12048.0 1.1220171120465339
CA 2018-03-08 13220.0 1.1185277406599927
IR 2018-01-09 6870.0 1.116942926564113
CH 2018-05-12 4097.0 1.1165258702230925
CH 2018-06-19 20359.0 1.1149688598832812
UK 2018-03-22 13776.0 1.1141486490792734
CH 2018-08-04 6976.0 1.113940120908763
RS 2018-05-22 5681.0 1.1139262190307289
IR 2018-09-12 15022.0 1.113523064567742
SA 2018-08-08 11386.0 1.1131477138608235
CA 2018-04-12 16936.0 1.1124387180810877
KN 2018-07-04 1450.0 1.1116185072770801
CA 2018-04-14 10213.0 1.1106453758146981
RS 2018-02-10 6376.0 1.1104646514002556
CA 2018-01-15 7031.0 1.1093107955234314
UK 2018-03-17 7314.0 1.108170841524641
UK 2018-11-03 6218.0 1.1078232945737903
SA 2018-12-07 12501.0 1.10675284996517
SA 2018-11-28 11508.0 1.1063774992582514
CH 2018-05-05 5004.0 1.1054738771860393
CA 2018-04-29 4956.0 1.1048343907964742
SY 2018-04-06 5722.0 1.1040280818705004
UK 2018-11-05 18989.0 1.1017203701168514
IR 2018-04-28 1929.0 1.100497004849857
CA 2018-03-09 19018.0 1.1002189672891765
CA 2018-08-10 18390.0 1.10009385038687

coveragebycountry

Coverage without USA

display(oil_gas_cov_norm.filter($"date" >"2018-01-01" && $"date"<"2018-12-31" && $"country" =!="US").orderBy(desc("coverage")).limit(1000))
country date articles coverage
SA 2018-10-18 101417.0 12.684765148069788
SA 2018-10-17 194570.0 12.679829981367707
SA 2018-10-19 73494.0 12.331977189200233
SA 2018-10-16 232742.0 11.147328652530456
SA 2018-10-20 128817.0 10.709919962067769
SA 2018-10-15 141823.0 10.667699958478423
SA 2018-10-21 50740.0 9.754541197935195
SA 2018-10-14 50385.0 9.574067017297429
SA 2018-10-22 116446.0 8.871146358262825
SA 2018-10-23 116063.0 8.419627261595597
IR 2018-05-10 98317.0 7.607938308822747
IR 2018-05-11 42017.0 7.539958125236347
IR 2018-05-09 196921.0 7.532895971195059
IR 2018-05-08 170920.0 7.434123127763284
SA 2018-10-13 18580.0 7.281967072680836
IR 2018-05-07 20107.0 7.117785893098955
SA 2018-10-24 125847.0 6.782917455015266
IR 2018-09-25 74769.0 6.407858687535197
IR 2018-09-24 49741.0 6.326894149865013
SA 2018-10-25 37872.0 6.225048991387717
IR 2018-09-23 109693.0 6.0511921046941515
IR 2018-05-06 8554.0 5.899091657123839
IR 2018-05-12 16179.0 5.45491275205858
IR 2018-09-22 126435.0 5.316311028059311
IR 2018-09-26 62879.0 4.890885756461957
SA 2018-10-26 41015.0 4.7543693141677945
SY 2018-04-14 77719.0 4.541837402783558
TU 2018-10-19 32942.0 4.493472769103172
TU 2018-10-17 87405.0 4.406919676463308
SA 2018-10-12 38993.0 4.402749113053098
IR 2018-09-21 6514.0 4.39340705101423
TU 2018-10-18 31166.0 4.386261485704741
SY 2018-04-15 92616.0 4.209123755795143
TU 2018-10-20 32608.0 4.161412510382355
SY 2018-04-16 51381.0 4.067310697970013
TU 2018-10-16 72217.0 4.017722699022632
IS 2018-05-12 2255.0 3.939816574519934
SY 2018-04-13 12182.0 3.928722875848778
SY 2018-04-17 51599.0 3.9177820978359974
IS 2018-05-13 1307.0 3.8505943212975358
IR 2018-09-20 16401.0 3.830172462465547
KN 2018-05-11 9007.0 3.8239305192282673
KN 2018-05-10 151876.0 3.7756910024501873
KN 2018-05-09 99867.0 3.7698522136758945
TU 2018-10-15 49492.0 3.7396851383420526
SY 2018-04-12 21443.0 3.725936180966398
KN 2018-05-08 12105.0 3.6731924557052915
KN 2018-05-12 7621.0 3.6677012138818506
IR 2018-08-06 61148.0 3.6273301600710304
KN 2018-05-07 329.0 3.6256341309508784
IR 2018-08-07 100863.0 3.560489930483419
RS 2018-07-19 40550.0 3.538052299336496
IR 2018-08-05 15094.0 3.51967401657551
RS 2018-07-18 28985.0 3.5130011151191765
RS 2018-07-17 68773.0 3.509470038098533
IR 2018-08-08 53752.0 3.5018379070578507
IR 2018-09-27 36233.0 3.4635243311960666
TU 2018-10-21 20839.0 3.4264063168452097
TU 2018-10-14 22325.0 3.426142181162563
IR 2018-08-09 21172.0 3.357981273161719
IR 2018-05-05 9074.0 3.317318279912184
SA 2018-10-27 11084.0 3.3093803075547537
IR 2018-11-05 75534.0 3.2770028336135
IR 2018-11-04 32874.0 3.276127015297356
RS 2018-07-14 8640.0 3.1989020828183254
TU 2018-10-22 57204.0 3.1911865405094395
IR 2018-11-03 29708.0 3.1837768395173023
IR 2018-09-28 12338.0 3.1835822132248253
TU 2018-10-23 48331.0 3.1767702929881514
IS 2018-05-11 8186.0 3.168234539875258
IR 2018-05-13 13952.0 3.149286280114876
RS 2018-07-16 58266.0 3.084837173549118
RS 2018-07-15 6153.0 3.0744802744137663
RS 2018-03-16 25299.0 3.044549531006502
IR 2018-08-04 10215.0 3.038460508427597
IR 2018-07-24 34917.0 2.9866204052387033
RS 2018-07-20 52232.0 2.978765844149476
IR 2018-07-25 13467.0 2.9717175919862244
IS 2018-05-14 132441.0 2.9480426936942727
IR 2018-07-23 121138.0 2.9291222376899593
SA 2018-11-20 41960.0 2.915665219753019
KN 2018-03-08 8525.0 2.8903916054871543
RS 2018-03-18 66413.0 2.8767816668918407
SY 2018-04-18 6987.0 2.8668140203414416
RS 2018-03-19 61502.0 2.8591540855446915
SA 2018-11-21 61467.0 2.8581670522042755
IS 2018-05-15 62384.0 2.8523004596739154
FR 2018-12-03 26729.0 2.848922303311646
FR 2018-12-04 22382.0 2.8355904022770124
IS 2018-05-16 8920.0 2.828778482040338
KN 2018-03-07 10783.0 2.8284587388455553
IS 2018-05-17 7721.0 2.8191861861968586
IR 2018-07-22 21615.0 2.8127913223012047
RS 2018-04-13 28932.0 2.7998486738515243
IR 2018-11-06 37292.0 2.79624808744071
TU 2018-10-24 34534.0 2.786405557792618
RS 2018-03-17 11413.0 2.745992798347696
IR 2018-07-26 14868.0 2.7445887086662597
IR 2018-11-02 42823.0 2.7344820433355195
RS 2018-04-14 31685.0 2.733786949433818
IR 2018-07-21 8979.0 2.726933323563042
SA 2018-10-11 22749.0 2.7074845961934355
SA 2018-11-19 16766.0 2.6906077162601245
SA 2018-11-22 40463.0 2.679694742003412
RS 2018-03-20 14935.0 2.664319264897776
SY 2018-04-11 30920.0 2.6611079310719146
KN 2018-03-09 101156.0 2.646177314063368
IR 2018-08-10 5025.0 2.6344302271246134
RS 2018-04-15 15941.0 2.5899720211717887
TU 2018-10-25 14246.0 2.56675588485496
CH 2018-03-26 15479.0 2.5665056510503477
SA 2018-11-23 26002.0 2.553187651893748
RS 2018-03-21 24279.0 2.545305287048454
KN 2018-05-13 1944.0 2.491560626568898
IR 2018-11-07 15431.0 2.4846513931859855
CH 2018-03-25 19450.0 2.466189699156795
CH 2018-03-27 25021.0 2.458418549335772
IR 2018-07-20 6869.0 2.4519958816840512
FR 2018-12-02 23278.0 2.4396093083557315
CH 2018-03-28 101895.0 2.4361755444813262
KN 2018-03-06 36844.0 2.4332005425820435
CH 2018-03-30 6122.0 2.425054042054103
KN 2018-03-10 32100.0 2.4148778673331934
IR 2018-09-19 10017.0 2.4123060198968984
RS 2018-04-12 38212.0 2.39581839254854
RS 2018-02-14 15800.0 2.390118622554588
TU 2018-10-13 4612.0 2.379900742199577
UK 2018-04-18 56380.0 2.3646364801182136
RS 2018-03-15 14247.0 2.361161010609706
AR 2018-11-30 48495.0 2.3373887991715168
SA 2018-11-18 20211.0 2.333454567687886
RS 2018-07-13 21687.0 2.3163135520719282
UK 2018-04-21 13971.0 2.308097542153817
KN 2018-03-11 4607.0 2.3030650623054987
KN 2018-06-12 53681.0 2.284380938227764
RS 2018-04-16 35940.0 2.2754976381640195
UK 2018-04-20 21037.0 2.274454997311467
IR 2018-09-29 17315.0 2.26625288927139
KN 2018-06-13 21236.0 2.264765388321749
AR 2018-12-01 36929.0 2.2638756681275716
KN 2018-06-11 71286.0 2.2607894512040168
CH 2018-03-31 2621.0 2.2375594130091545
UK 2018-04-17 16163.0 2.2356965613525945
RS 2018-04-11 30356.0 2.2337781021838987
KN 2018-06-10 16032.0 2.2238104556334997
UK 2018-04-19 32276.0 2.2161783245928177
CH 2018-03-29 15806.0 2.2137454959368625
KN 2018-03-12 7485.0 2.2016091564131552
AR 2018-12-02 48505.0 2.183091854871829
SA 2018-11-24 9880.0 2.1829111304573865
IR 2018-08-03 9833.0 2.166298386206722
AR 2018-11-29 13730.0 2.154745925560444
RS 2018-07-21 8894.0 2.146557719398401
RS 2018-04-17 26736.0 2.131696611780024
IR 2018-11-08 13215.0 2.1220070027903057
UK 2018-07-11 27825.0 2.107090287659793
SA 2018-10-10 29693.0 2.1045184402234973
UK 2018-04-16 23182.0 2.103823346321796
RS 2018-04-09 6877.0 2.098401613888524
RS 2018-12-02 5691.0 2.0927574514067087
UK 2018-07-12 38075.0 2.088545182362398
UK 2018-07-10 24389.0 2.060449486855625
KN 2018-06-14 5682.0 2.0519276356207654
RS 2018-02-15 22046.0 2.0507181722318046
IR 2018-05-14 15217.0 2.042947022410783
FR 2018-12-01 70292.0 2.0375252899775114
UK 2018-05-14 13079.0 2.0163666316097197
AR 2018-12-03 15700.0 2.007302607131533
UK 2018-05-11 42485.0 1.9899391614670308
FR 2018-12-05 34985.0 1.9873534121527012
RS 2018-02-13 15796.0 1.9761484984572735
UK 2018-05-16 26616.0 1.9717416031204864
IR 2018-01-02 25965.0 1.9606618063273653
UK 2018-05-15 13218.0 1.9470379658540171
UK 2018-05-17 44767.0 1.944243688369177
KN 2018-06-09 2175.0 1.9374873756446391
UK 2018-07-13 41539.0 1.9361388934753383
RS 2018-04-10 31488.0 1.9333307141124645
UK 2018-05-18 37498.0 1.9209580426621784
RS 2018-02-16 43709.0 1.9187476440547682
UK 2018-04-15 18239.0 1.9088773106506076
UK 2018-06-19 33154.0 1.9045677284600584
UK 2018-05-19 9638.0 1.8946973950558978
SA 2018-10-09 25632.0 1.8912080236693567
FR 2018-12-06 33466.0 1.8872737921857266
UK 2018-05-10 32097.0 1.8818103541183535
IR 2018-05-18 12730.0 1.8800448156080312
IR 2018-09-09 17329.0 1.8762217991486734
RS 2018-12-03 7632.0 1.8636266976498435
CA 2018-08-08 20157.0 1.8594700361176686
IR 2018-09-10 6322.0 1.8592615079471582
TU 2018-10-26 31905.0 1.8554245896097663
RS 2018-12-01 21909.0 1.8538953830260227
CA 2018-08-09 20022.0 1.8528805459295388
UK 2018-06-17 15941.0 1.8499194459082908
SA 2018-10-28 10611.0 1.8495162914453036
UK 2018-05-13 8170.0 1.8402298369185723
FR 2018-11-30 4952.0 1.8362399979228063
IR 2018-09-11 28622.0 1.8351695533141859
CA 2018-08-07 16160.0 1.8335291317061704
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UK 2018-01-19 9315.0 0.846106538705161
IZ 2018-07-17 21518.0 0.8458145992664464
CA 2018-09-18 16734.0 0.844716350901758
CH 2018-11-09 16631.0 0.844716350901758
SY 2018-02-23 5520.0 0.8444383133410774
UK 2018-10-13 6284.0 0.844257588926635
UK 2018-02-22 15888.0 0.8436598081711718
UK 2018-12-02 2852.0 0.8429786161475044
UK 2018-02-20 12166.0 0.8428395973671641
UK 2018-03-27 15621.0 0.8426171673186197
CH 2018-11-18 6278.0 0.8422696203677689
CH 2018-08-03 19219.0 0.8422418166117007
UK 2018-10-12 9764.0 0.8417830546365778
RS 2018-08-23 11478.0 0.8413381945394889
UK 2018-09-01 2609.0 0.8406152968817194
CA 2018-09-19 12751.0 0.8402260442967666
UK 2018-06-07 15156.0 0.8394753428829291
SA 2018-12-13 18078.0 0.839350225980623

coveragewithoutusa

Investigating a seemingly inflentiual (2018-10-18) in Saudi Arabia (SA) using the scalable web scraper library goose

//Initializing the web scraper.
val urlContentFetcher = {new ContentFetcher()
    .setInputCol("sourceUrl")
    .setOutputTitleCol("title")
    .setOutputContentCol("content")
    .setOutputKeywordsCol("keywords")
    .setOutputPublishDateCol("publishDateCollected")
    .setOutputDescriptionCol("description")
    .setUserAgent("Mozilla/5.0 (X11; U; Linux x86_64; de; rv:1.9.2.8) Gecko/20100723 Ubuntu/10.04 Firefox/")
    .setConnectionTimeout(1000)
    .setSocketTimeout(1000)
                        }
val big_event_SA = oilEventCoverageDF.filter($"country" ==="SA" && $"eventDay" === "2018-10-18").orderBy(desc("coverage")).limit(100)
val SAEventURLS = urlContentFetcher.transform(big_event_SA.select($"country",$"coverage",$"date",$"sourceUrl",$"eventId")).filter(col("description") =!= "").orderBy(desc("coverage"))
SAEventURLS.printSchema
root
 |-- sourceUrl: string (nullable = true)
 |-- description: string (nullable = false)
 |-- content: string (nullable = false)
 |-- keywords: array (nullable = false)
 |    |-- element: string (containsNull = true)
 |-- title: string (nullable = false)
 |-- publishDateCollected: date (nullable = true)
 |-- country: string (nullable = true)
 |-- coverage: double (nullable = true)
 |-- date: date (nullable = true)
 |-- eventId: integer (nullable = true)
SAEventURLS.select($"description").show(6,false)
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|description                                                                                                                                                                                           |
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|The old Saudi Arabia was a place the United States often turned to in times of turbulence — when world oil prices were spiking or political tensions in the                                           |
|APPS-KHASHOGGI/ (COLUMN):COLUMN-Khashoggi case shows America's collapsing Mideast clout                                                                                                               |
|The disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi reveals the true nature of the Saudi crown prince, says author Dilip Hiro                                                                                        |
|Everything you wanted to know about U.S.-Saudi arms sales and the politics around them, but were afraid to ask.                                                                                       |
|The money transfer curiously coincided with the visit of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Riyadh to sort out frictions between the allies over the Khashoggi killing in Turkey earlier this month.|
|If you had to pick a year in the past decade when the contradictions of the American-Saudi relationship seemed likeliest to explode into crisis, 2018 would not be the obvious choice.                |
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
only showing top 6 rows

Investigating seemingly inflentiual events in Iran (IR) using goose on:

  • 2018-05-10
  • 2018-09-25

Events on 2018-05-10

val big_event_IR1 = oilEventCoverageDF.filter($"country" ==="IR" && $"eventDay" === "2018-05-10").orderBy(desc("coverage")).limit(100)
val IR1EventURLS = urlContentFetcher.transform(big_event_IR1.select($"country",$"coverage",$"date",$"sourceUrl",$"eventId")).filter(col("description") =!= "").orderBy(desc("coverage"))
IR1EventURLS.select($"description").show(10,false)
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|description                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|See related links to what you are looking for.                                                                                                                                                                                                            |
|See related links to what you are looking for.                                                                                                                                                                                                            |
|See related links to what you are looking for.                                                                                                                                                                                                            |
|Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday that US President Donald Trump's anti-Iran remarks, upon announcement of his withdrawal for the nuclear deal on Tuesday, was                                                                  |
|Before the May 12 deadline, President Donald Trump has withdrawn the US from the multilateral Iran nuclear deal, with the objective to find a different method of dealing with the purported Iranian...                                                   |
|Before the May 12 deadline, President Donald Trump has withdrawn the US from the multilateral Iran nuclear deal, with the objective to find a different method of dealing with the purported Iranian...                                                   |
|It is dangerous that neither Trump nor Netanyahu appears to fully grasp the dire regional and international implications of the unilateral decertification of the deal by the US.                                                                         |
|So, Bibi helps Trump decide on Iran, he threatens to strike Syria if the Russians sell them S-400 and now hes a guest of honor at the Victory Day parade in Moscow. How much weirder can Middle Eastern politics get, I wonder.                           |
|Canadian stocks may continue to rise Thursday, stoked by higher oil prices and a diplomatic breakthrough with North Korea.  Three Americans Americans ere freed Wednesday ahead of President Trump's upcoming summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.|
|For Iran, Iraq is the most important Arab state, even more than Syria and Lebanon                                                                                                                                                                         |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
only showing top 10 rows

Events on 2018-09-25

val big_event_IR2 = oilEventCoverageDF.filter($"country" ==="IR" && $"eventDay" === "2018-09-25").orderBy(desc("coverage")).limit(100)
val IR2EventURLS = urlContentFetcher.transform(big_event_IR2.select($"country",$"coverage",$"date",$"sourceUrl",$"eventId")).filter(col("description") =!= "").orderBy(desc("coverage"))
IR2EventURLS.select($"description").show(6,false)
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|description                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|Following the deadly attack in the Iranian city of Ahvaz on Saturday morning, which killed 25 and wounded 53 during a parade commemorating the 38th anniversary of the...                                                                                                                                                                      |
|Following the deadly attack in the Iranian city of Ahvaz on Saturday morning, which killed 25 and wounded 53 during a parade commemorating the 38th anniversary of the...                                                                                                                                                                      |
|Trump said his administration has accomplished more in less than two years 'than almost any administration in the history of our country'                                                                                                                                                                                                      |
|A crowd largely comprised of Iranian-Americans gathered to protest the Iranian regime and President Hassan Rouhani.                                                                                                                                                                                                                            |
|With European companies abandoning Iran in the face of growing U.S. pressure, European politicians backing Iran are counting on oil demand from China, India and Turkey to keep the 2015 nuclear deal alive. Since the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal in May, Iran has threatened to resume its nuclear program if it loses economic ...|
|President Trump won't meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani during his time at the United Nations General Assembly meeting and blasted the country in his speech to delegates.                                                                                                                                                            |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
only showing top 6 rows

Enrich Data with Trend Calculus

For more information about Trend Calculus, see https://lamastex.github.io/spark-trend-calculus-examples/

val rootTrendPath = TrendUtils.getStreamableTrendCalculusPath
val oilGoldPath = rootTrendPath +"oilGoldDelta"

Gather trend reversals of all oil price data

val oil_data_all = spark.read.format("delta").load(oilGoldPath).as[TickerPoint].filter($"ticker" === "BCOUSD")
val trend_oil_all = new TrendCalculus2(oil_data_all,2,spark).nReversalsJoinedWithMaxRev(15)
trend_oil_all.write.parquet(rootCheckpointPath+"trend_oil_all")

Code needed for the interactive plot below

from plotly.offline import plot
from plotly.graph_objs import *
from datetime import *
from pyspark.sql import functions as F
import pyspark.sql.functions
from pyspark.sql.functions import col, avg
rootCheckpointPath = GdeltUtils.getEOICheckpointPath()
trend_oil_all = spark.read.parquet(rootCheckpointPath+"trend_oil_all")

oil_gas_cov_us_2015_2018 = spark.read.parquet(rootCheckpointPath+"oil_gas_cov_norm").select(F.col('date'),F.col('country'),F.col('coverage')).filter(F.col('country') == 'US').drop('country').filter(F.col('date')>'2015-01-01').filter(F.col('date')<'2018-12-31')

trend_oil_2015_2018 = trend_oil_all.filter(F.col('x')>'2015-01-01').filter(F.col('x')<'2018-12-31').orderBy(F.col('x'))

max_price = trend_oil_2015_2018.agg({'y': 'max'}).first()[0]
min_price = trend_oil_2015_2018.agg({'y': 'min'}).first()[0]
trend_oil_2015_2018_2 =trend_oil_2015_2018.withColumn('sy', (F.col('y')-min_price)/(max_price-min_price))

fullTS = trend_oil_2015_2018_2.filter("maxRev > 2").select("x","sy","maxRev").collect()
coverage =oil_gas_cov_us_2015_2018.collect()

TS = [row for row in fullTS]
numReversals = 15
startReversal = 7

allData = {'x': [row['x'] for row in TS], 'y': [row['sy'] for row in TS], 'maxRev': [row['maxRev'] for row in TS]}
allDataCov = {'x': [row['date'] for row in coverage], 'y': [row['coverage'] for row in coverage]}

temp2 = max(allDataCov['y'])-min(allDataCov['y'])
standardCoverage = list(map(lambda x: (x-min(allDataCov['y']))/temp2,allDataCov['y']))

revTS = [row for row in TS if row[2] >= startReversal]
colorList = ['rgba(' + str(tmp) + ',' + str(255-tmp) + ',' + str(255-tmp) + ',1)' for tmp in [int(i*255/(numReversals-startReversal+1)) for i in range(1,numReversals-startReversal+2)]]

def getRevTS(tsWithRevMax, revMax):
  x = [row[0] for row in tsWithRevMax if row[2] >= revMax]
  y = [row[1] for row in tsWithRevMax if row[2] >= revMax]
  return x,y,revMax

reducedData = [getRevTS(revTS, i) for i in range(startReversal, numReversals+1)]

markerPlots = [Scattergl(x=x, y=y, mode='markers', marker=dict(color=colorList[i-startReversal], size=i), name='Reversal ' + str(i)) for (x,y,i) in [getRevTS(revTS, i) for i in range(startReversal, numReversals+1)]]

Plot of oil price together with oil and gas coverage for USA

p = plot(
  [Scattergl(x=allData['x'], y=allData['y'], mode='lines', name='Oil Price'),Scattergl(x=allDataCov['x'], y=standardCoverage, mode='lines', name='Oil and gas coverage usa ')] + markerPlots 
  ,
  output_type='div'
)
displayHTML(p)

oiltrendevents